Consolidating peace? The inner struggles of Sudan’s transition agreement
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17159/ajcr.v24i1.17865Abstract
The use of transitional agreements across the African continent appears to be on the rise. However, many transitional agreements tend to be stagnant and fail to deal with grievances, causes of conflict or to provide sustainable paths to democracy. Drawing on the civilian-led Transitional Government of Sudan from 11 April 2019 to 25 October 2021 (the length of the transitional agreement), and an original dataset, this article argues that the policies of the transitional government of Sudan, political rhetoric and the challenges of implementing transitional agreement policies did not align with political realities. This was primarily due to the inability of the Transitional Government of Sudan to dismantle existing power structures under previous regimes. We find that the Transitional Government of Sudan neglected to consider path dependencies of the previous regimes, which led to its being unable to provide the people of Sudan with strategies to circumvent existing structures set up by past regimes. As a result, efforts of the Transitional Government of Sudan acted as exacerbators of existing inner struggles. The article argues for the need for better technical support and provisions to support incoming transitional governments trying to emerge from autocracy or dictatorship to democracy during transitional periods.
References
Ali, A., Elbadawi, G.I., and El-Batahani, A. (2005) The Sudan's civil war: Why has it prevailed for so long? Chapter 10. In: Collier, P. and Sambanis, N. eds. Understanding civil war: Evidence and analysis. Volume I: Africa. Washington DC, World Bank.
Al-Jazeera. (2020) Sudan PM Abdallah Hamdok survives assassination attempt. Al- Jazeera [Internet], 9 March. Available from: <http://www.ajazeera.com/news/2020/3/9/sudan-pm-abdalla-hamdok-survives-assasination-attempt> [Accessed 9 August 2020].
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). (2020) Sudan army quells Khartoum mutiny by pro-Bashir troops. BBC [Internet], 15 January . Available from: <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-51112518 [Accessed 9 August 2020].
Beswick, S. (1991) The Addis Ababa Agreement: 1972-1983 Harbinger of the Second Civil War in the Sudan. Northeast African Studies, 13 (2‒3), pp.191‒215.
Davies, B. (2022) Sudan’s 2019 constitutional declaration: Its impact on the transition. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance [Internet]. Available from: <https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/sudans-2019-constitutional-declaration-its-impact-on-the-transition-en.pdf> [Accessed 14 May 2024].
Deng, F. (1995) War of visions: Conflict identities in the Sudan. Washington, DC, The Brookings Institution.
Duursma, A. (2020) African Solutions to African Challenges: The Role of Legitimacy in Mediating Civil Wars in Africa. International Organization, 74(2), pp. 295-330.
El-Battahani, A. (2006) A complex web: Politics and conflict in Sudan. Conciliation Resources, 18, pp. 10‒13.
Elhadary, Y. and Abdelatti, H. (2016) The Implication of Land Grapping on Pastoral Economy in Sudan. World Environment, 6 (2), pp. 25–33.
ElNur, I. (2009) Contested Sudan: The political economy of war and reconstruction. London, Routledge.
Gallopin, J-B. (2020) Bad Company: How dark money threatens Sudan’s transition. European Council on Foreign Relations, no. 324, pp. 1‒31 [Internet]. Available from: <https://ecfr.eu/publication/bad_company_how_dark_money_threatens_Sudans_transition/> [Accessed 23 September 2020].
Goodluck J, Chambas, M.I., Olonisakin, F, Akinola, A.O., Kassi Bou, J. C., Toure, B.A., Olojo, A, Darkwa, L.A.O “Africa in Perspectives: Spotlight on West Africa.” Moderated by Andrew E. Yaw Tchie. London, United Kingdom: Royal United Services Institute, 2020. Available at: <https://www.rusi.org/events/open-to-all/africa-in-perspective---spotlight-on-west-africa>. [Accessed August 2020].
Human Rights Watch. (2004) Darfur destroyed, ethnic cleansing by government and militia forces in Western Sudan. Brussels, New York, Washington D.C: Human Rights Watch [Internet]. Available from: <https://www.hrw.org/report/2004/05/06/darfur-destroyed/ethnic-cleansing-government-and-militiaforces-western-sudan> [Accessed 9 August 2020].
Ibrahim, M. (2015) Artisanal mining in Sudan – opportunities, challenges and impacts. Paper presented at 17th Africa Oil Gas Mine, 23‒26 November 2015, in Khartoum [Internet]. Available from: <https://unctad.org/meetings/en/Presentation/17OILGASMINE%20Mohamed%20Sulaim- an%20Ibrahim%20S4.pdf> [Accessed 12 September 2020].
Khalid, M. (1990) The government they deserve: The role of the elite in Sudan's political evolution. London, Kegan Paul.
Mansour, A. and Yousif, A. (2021) Attitudes of the Sudanese people towards the performance of new transitional government: An exploratory Study. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, Vol 15(2), pp. 65-75.
McAuliffe, P. (2017) Transitional Justice, liberal peacebuilding and the endogenous determinants of transformation. In: Transformative Transitional Justice and the Malleability of Post-Conflict States [Internet]. Available from: <https://doi.org/10.4337/9781783470044> [Accessed 9 August 2020].
Mamdani, M. (2009) Saviours and survivors: Darfur, politics, and the war on terror. New York, Pantheon.
Perthes, V. (2024) Roundtable at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI): Lesson Learned on UNITAMS. EPON/TfP Seminar. 5 June 2024.
Radio Dagbana. Available from: <https://www.dabangasudan.org/en> [Accessed 9 August 2020].
Refaat, T. (2021) Sudan, Turkey re-sign deals worth $10 billion. Sada Elbalad English [Internet]. Available from: <https://see.news/sudan-turkey-re-sign-deals-worth-10-billion> [Accessed 20 December 2021].
Richmond, O. (2013) Failed Statebuilding Versus Peace Formation. Cooperation and Conflict, 48 (3), pp. 378–400.
Schedler, A. (2007) Electoral Authoritarianism in Emerging Trends in the Social and Behavioral Sciences. DOI: 10.4135/9780857021083.n21.
Stigant, S. (2023) What´s Behind the Fighting in Sudan: The ongoing confrontation between the military and Rapid Support Forces undermines stability in Sudan and the Horn of Africa. United States Institute of Peace. Available from: <https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/04/whats-behind-fighting-sudan> [Accessed August 2023].
Sudan Constitutional Declaration, 2019. Accessed August 11, 2021. Available at: https://constitutionnet.org/vl/item/sudan-constitutional-declaration-august-2019 [Accessed August 2021].
Sudan Tribune. (2021a) Darfur armed groups accuse Sudan’s military of delaying security arrangements. Sudan Tribune [Internet], 29 May. Available from: <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article69613> [Accessed 28 August 2021].
Sudan Tribune. (2021b) US’s power pledges more support to Sudan calls to disband the RSF. Sudan Tribune [Internet], 4 August. Available from: <http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?iframe&page=imprimable&id_article=69902> [Accessed 29 August 2021].
Tchie, A. (2019) How Sudan’s protesters upped the ante and forced al-Bashir from power. The Conversation [Internet], 11 April. Available from: https://theconversation.com/how-sudans-protesters-upped-the-ante-and-forced-al-bashir-from-power-115306 [Accessed 25 October 2019].
Tchie, A. and Ali, H. (2021) Restructuring state power in Sudan. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal [Internet], 16 (1), pp. 41‒51. Available from: <http://dx.doi.org/10.15355/epsj.16.1.41> [Accessed 20 August 2020].
Tchie, A. and Mashamoun (2022) After the Coup: Regional Strategies for Sudan. Available at: <https://africanarguments.org/2022/01/after-the-coup-regional-strategies-for-sudan/ > [Accessed August 2022].
Tchie, A. (2023) Enhancing the African Union´s function in supporting transitional governments in Africa. Training for Peace (TfP) Report. 2 August 2023. Available at: <https://trainingforpeace.org/publications/enhancing-the-african-unions-function-in-supporting-transitional-governments-in-africa/#:~:text=Enhancing%20the%20African%20Union's%20function,in%20Africa%20%E2%80%93%20Training%20for%20Peace&text=In%202010%2C%20the%20African%20Union,and%20respect%20for%20human%20rights> [Accessed August 2023].
The New Arab. (2017) Sudan's Bashir orders six-month ceasefire extension in three regions. The New Arab [Internet], January 16. Available from: <https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/1/16/sudans-bashir-orders-six-month-ceasefire-extension-in-three-regions> [Accessed 9 August 2020].
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2020) Sudan: The First State of Environment and Outlook Report 2020: Environment for Peace and Sustainable Development. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme [Internet]. Available at: <http://www.unep.org/resources/report/sudan-first-state-enviroment- outlook-report-2020> [Accessed 24 October 2021].
United Nations Populations Council. (2020) Voices from Sudan 2020: A Qualitative assessment of Gender-Based Violence in Sudan. Khartoum: United Nations Population Fund, 2020, Available at: <http://www.reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/UNFPA_16th.pdf> [Accessed October 2021].
Young, A. (2021) Exploring new security partnerships with Sudan. US Department of State [Internet]. Available from: <https://www.state.gov/dipnote-u-s-department-of-state-official-blog/exploring-new-security-partnerships-with-sudan/> [Accessed 24 October 2021].
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 African Journal on Conflict Resolution
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.